NBA Playoffs Preview- "It's Fannntastic"

By Michael Kelly

This NBA season has been of the best in recent memory. The West is loaded, and the East has two legitimate title contenders in Detroit and Boston. With that said, let’s get into the playoff picks.

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)

It should be exciting to see the Hawks in the playoffs, after years of stockpiling young talent, but I can’t see this series going more than four or five games. The Celtics are too good, and have taken care of business all year. The Boston defense could make this series almost depressing to watch, as Atlanta does not have a very fluid set offense, and tends to rely on Joe Johnson and Josh Smith creating shots for themselves and others.
The Celtics have a defensive structure that takes away one-on-one basketball, which will confuse the young Hawks. Expect this series not to be close, and to not really be worth watching.

Prediction: Celtics in 4.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Washington Wizards (5)

The second best series of the first round, after Phoenix vs. San Antonio. These two teams have met the past two years in the first round, with the Cavs coming out on top both years. This year seems different though. The mid-season trade by the Cavs seemed to just confuse their chemistry, and while it did infuse needed talent to the team, it hasn’t really seemed to improve their play. Meanwhile, Washington’s injuries this year (Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler) have caused the team to build up their depth and they now have more than just their big three of Arenas, Butler and Antawn Jamison.
Looking at this series, you know LeBron James will be his typical 30-7-7- self, but who else on Cleveland can step up? Daniel Gibson is a role player at best, and Zydrunas Ilgauskus was at his best years ago.
Also, Butler defends James as well as any other player in the league. If he can guard James well enough so that he doesn’t win two or three of these games himself, the Wizards will finally advance.

Prediction- Wizards in 6

Orlando Magic (3) vs. Toronto Raptors (6)

This series could get ugly, which is odd for a 3-6 series. Toronto hasn’t been healthy all year, and Coach Sam Mitchell doesn’t really seem to understand what to do with the team. His best point guard is Jose Calderon, and he comes off the bench for about 25 minutes. Andrei Bargnani plays major minutes, but doesn’t really bring much to the table, and seem to slow their tempo down when he is in.
For all their faults—and there are many—Orlando does have an identity. They run, they play tough defense, and Dwight Howard is the center of their team, with good shooters like Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis working off of him. Orland might be doomed in later rounds because their best point guard is Jameer Nelson, but against Toronto this shouldn’t hurt them.

Prediction- Magic in 5

Detroit Pistons (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)

On paper, this is a huge mismatch. Detroit has been in the elite of the league for years, and seems to have a sizable advantage at each position. And, just try to name the starters for the 76ers.
But, Detroit knows it has been so good for so long. During the season it goes to their heads, and they will sleepwalk through weeks at a time. I don’t think the idea of playing a first round series against a team of no-names will wake them up. But it should.
To make up for their lack of talent, Philly runs, plays hard and defends. On any given night this past season they could go into any team’s arena and beat them there- just ask San Antonio whose late season home-loss to them almost cost them their playoff seeding. Philly will come out and play with intensity the whole series and I just don’t think that will always be true for the Pistons.
But, this isn’t the NCAA tournament. If it were, Philly would be a hot pick to be the 13 or 14 seed to advance deep into the tournament because of their playing style. But, this isn’t one and done. Expect Philly to win a game or two early in this series, and then for Detroit to close the door on the 76ers.

Prediction- Detroit in 6

Western Conference

L.A. Lakers (1) vs. Denver Nuggets (8)

If you were to take away the seeds of these teams and just look at the talent on their rosters, I would think Denver would be the higher seed. Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson and Marcus Camby have to be one of the best five trios in the NBA. But, they don’t always seem to mesh well, and the rest of the team doesn’t seem to fit in with them either.
The Lakers have to take the dysfunctional Nuggets seriously though. They have Iverson and Anthony, so against any team they always have a puncher’s chance. How L.A. tries to work back Bynum (if at all) could be crucial, because he hasn’t played in months and could throw their rotation off if it doesn’t work.
The Lakers have too much depth for the Nuggets to handle though, especially the pace at which these games are going to be played. The Lakers go a legitimate 10-11 deep, while the Nuggets really struggle after their top seven. This series should be entertaining, and well-played, but I don’t think too many of these well-played games will end in a Nuggets win. And the Nuggets have no one who can guard Kobe Bryant.

Prediction- Lakers in 5

Utah Jazz (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)

The 10-15 people who will watch this series know that the only thing that matters in it is whether or not Houston can defend Deron Williams. Rafer Alston is going to miss the first two games for Houston, and he already wasn’t a very strong option against Williams.
Houston has put together a great season, especially after losing Yao. But, they can’t defend Williams and he will run roughshod over them like he did last year in the playoffs.
Not this year either, Tracy.

Prediction- Jazz in 5

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Phoenix Suns (6)

Possibly the greatest first round series of all time. These two teams are in the group of six that can win the championship this year (L.A., New Orleans, Detroit, Boston), and one won’t be around after this round.
For the past three seasons San Antonio has been the thorn in Phoenix’s side, eliminating them twice. San Antonio has shown its age a bit this year, but still remains a force. Manu Ginobilli had the best season of his career, Tony Parker has been the most consistent player for the team all year, and Tim Duncan remains as one of the top five players in the NBA.
Duncan’s numbers were down a bit this year—they have been for a few years now—but he always picks up his game in the playoffs. In a loaded west, I would love to watch him play meaningful series after meaningful series, just to see if he could average 30-15 for the entire playoffs. But, I don’t think I’m going to get to see it.
The Suns are a different team this year, and it goes back to the Shaq trade. I was opposed to the trade when it happened—wont get into my reasoning—but all that changed in the last game these two teams played against one another in the regular season. Shaq was traded for to get Phoenix past the Spurs, and to give them a player who could look Duncan eye-to-eye without fear. There was a play in their last regular season game where Shaq fell to the floor, and Duncan reached his hand down—practically into the Big Aristotle’s chest—to help him up. O’Neal never even looked at him. Instead, he waited on the floor for his teammates to help him up, ignoring the hand from Duncan.
With the exception of Raja Bell, the Suns have not been a particularly tough team until now, and over the years Duncan has walked all over these Suns. Now though, while Duncan will get his numbers, he will not be able to intimidate the Suns. O’Neal won’t allow it.
O’Neal gives the Suns a backbone and a backbone is what this team has needed for years. While Shaq won’t lead his team to a victory with his points and rebounds, he will give Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire the confidence to do so.

Prediction- Suns in 7

New Orleans Hornet (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7)

This is a really terrible match-up for the Mavs. The Mavs have nobody who can guard Chris Paul, and he is one of the few players who can completely dominate a game. Jason Kidd is too slow at this point in his career, and Jason Terry doesn’t have an interest in defense. The run-and-gun style of New Orleans will be virtually impossible for the Mavs to stop, especially if they can’t slow down Paul.
The only chance for the Mavs is if Dirk can dominate the series on the offensive end. It is possible; the Hornets have no real stopper for Dirk, unless David West can stay with him on the perimeter.

Prediction- Hornets in 5