Final Four Preview

By Michael Kelly

This year’s Final Four lineup is the most loaded it has ever been; all number one seeds, a combined 143 wins between the teams, and a combined 51 game winning streak for the four teams heading into this weekend. So, how will the games go down?

Memphis vs. UCLA

The first game of Saturday evening (tip at 6:07) features two teams with a stark contrast in their playing styles. Memphis is going to try to turn it into a track meet, run-and-gun style. The Bruins will try to slow this game down, and use their vaunted defense to try to frustrate the high-octane Tigers.

The game will be decided by how the UCLA offense matches up with the Memphis defense. The Conference USA schedule that Memphis played hurt their defense; essentially, they run around and try to create chaos on defense to cause turnovers, a style that worked for them in C-USA, but won’t against UCLA. When Memphis has struggled in the tournament—this past weekend against Texas for a spurt at the beginning of the second half, for example—it was because their defense began to chase the ball rather than guard the hoop. UCLA is experienced, has solid ball handlers, and a reliable big man in Kevin Love down low that they can throw it into to slow the game down. The will not be unsettled by the defensive style that Calipari’s club uses If Memphis can stay disciplined on the defensive end, UCLA will be in trouble. But that’s a big if.

When the ball does get thrown down low, we will get to see the most interesting match-up of the Final Four; Love against Memphis’s Joey Dorsey. Love plays a slower game, but with an unbelievably amount of skill and savvy. While Dorsey is not the most finished product, he is a physical freak of nature. Without question, Love is the better talent, but it will be interesting to see if he can control the game like he did against Xavier because of Dorsey’s physical presence. Dorsey’s strength could push Love out to the perimeter more than he would like—though Love can hit the three—and if he is able to do that, Dorsey’s superior athleticism could cause serious problems for UCLA on offense.

UCLA will control the tempo of this game, but Memphis will be too strong in the end. Memphis was the most impressive team of this past weekend, while UCLA looked very human. Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts gives Memphis a clear advantage on the perimeter, and Dorsey should give Love enough trouble to give Memphis’s guards the chance to take over the game. Expect the Bruins to slow the game down, but just not quite enough against the Tigers.

PREDICTION: Memphis wins, 75-69

UNC vs. Kansas

The nightcap features the best subplot of the Final Four, Roy Williams against his old team, the Kansas Jayhawks. The subplot was only made juicier this week by Oklahoma State’s coach resigning, leading to rumors that current Kansas coach Bill Self could leave to go back to his alma mater. While that is unlikely, it does add a little more steam to the game, as Kansas could lose to its old coach and lose its current coach in one weekend. These subplots are interesting, but they probably won’t factor into the actual game much.

UNC and Kansas both had their hands full in eliminating Louisville and Davidson last weekend, and this game will be no different. No team really has a discernible advantage on the perimeter, and UNC has a slight advantage down low because of Tyler Hansbrough. How Kansas deals with Hansbrough will be crucial.

Kansas has multiple big bodies that can bang with Hansbrough, but none that are as talented as Hansbrough. Sasha Kaun, Darrel Arthur and company are very capable, but cannot take over a game in the way Hansbrough can. If Hansbrough is on, and is able to get the Jayhawks' big men in foul trouble, it will be a long night for the team from Kansas. But, the size of Kansas could prevent UNC from playing the athletic—but smallish—Danny Green at power forward, a lineup that UNC loves to use to pump up their fast break offense. If Green cannot bang with Kansas’s big men, this presents a major problem for UNC, that potentially could help to neutralize the advantage Hansbrough brings them down low.

The perimeter in this game has a very interesting match-up. Marcus Ginyard (1st Team All-ACC defense) will most likely be the one assigned to cover Brandon Rush, Kansas’s go-to-guy on offense. Rush has a size advantage on Ginyard, and can also shoot the deep shot. If Ginyard can keep Rush in check, Kansas is will be in deep trouble, but it is more likely that Rush will get his points.

The respective back-courts for each team are pretty much a wash, and should play even. It will be interesting to see if Kansas chooses Mario Chalmers or Sherron Collins to guard the ultra-quick Tar Heel point guard Ty Lawson, and if UNC’s Wayne Ellington can bounce back from a shaky Elite Eight showing.

This match-up seems like it should be happening Monday, and not Saturday. These two teams have played like the best two teams in the country during this tournament, and it should be a heavyweight fight. UNC has an extremely talented eight-man rotation, but Kansas goes a solid nine, ten deep. The game should be up-and-down, and it will be interesting to see who this benefits more. In the end, Hansbrough will be
too much for the Kansas big men, and UNC will head on to Monday’s title game after squeaking out a tough one against the Jayhawks.

PREDICTION: UNC Wins, 85-82